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Speak Peek: Summer Presentations with the Beaulieu Brothers

June 17, 2020

The unprecedented developments in the first half of 2020 rocked the economy. Through our summer events, ITR CEO Brian Beaulieu and President Alan Beaulieu will provide guidance and clarity for the rest of this year and years to come. Tune in to our bonus TrendsTalk to learn more.

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Transcript by Rev

Brian:
Hello. Thank you for joining Alan and me for this TrendsTalk. We want you to know what's coming up for our June 23rd and July 22nd webinars. We've gotten into this rhythm now of he and I had come together, do these joint webinars twice a year. It's a good effect. We ask each other questions, we bounce ideas off of each other and it comes together, I think it comes out during these webinars. And Alan, these are really two different type webinars or really a different focus on both webinars. You want to speak to that?

Alan:
Sure. I'd be happy to Brian. Thank you. What's going on is that in the first webinar, in the June webinar, we're going to be looking at some near term action items, near term lines in the sand, what's happening with key indicators. We'll see more if there's a second wave coming on. And if there is, what we think the impact will be. So we have that near term focus that we'll be going with a lot of practical discussions about it.

Alan:
But we're also going to branch into the election. It's on a lot of people's minds and we get so many questions about, we want to make sure that we get into that. If there's a change in political party in Congress or in the White House or both, what will it mean if we will have to change our forecast? What has to happen if we're going to change our forecast? Lots of talk about there, without taking any sides, of course. But trying to make everyone aware that the ship of state called the economy of the United States is on a course. We can plan on it, watch for these signs, keep your radar going. And we're going to provide that forward view. And in July... That's June.

Brian:
Absolutely. And I'm really looking forward to that one. One thing I wish is that we could rely on the polling data as we get so close to the actual election to discern who's the front runner, who's likely going to win. So we really have to keep our options open until the day after, I think.

Alan:
Yeah, boy. Isn't that true? And by then, it may not be a subject of discussion, but it is now, based on the questions you and I are getting and the rest of the team are getting is, what about all the social unrest? What is that going to do to our outlook? And what is that doing to the economy? So that's something that we have to make sure we address, too. If it's still in play by the 22nd.

Brian:
Let's hope it's not, but you're absolutely right. But let's hope it's not.

Alan:
That's right. And in July, there's some pretty exciting things for us to talk about there, aren't there?

Brian:
July is where we roll up our sleeves. The huge questions are all this deficit spending, right? What is that going to mean to the economy near term? Does this bring in the timing of the great depression that we've been forecasting? What does this mean in terms of that 2030 outlook? I mean, that alone is a fascinating topic, as far as I'm concerned. And we got some work to do to get ready to answer those questions more finitely than I think we've been able to do or have chosen to do in recent webinars. We're going to get into the nitty gritty of it a tad more.

Alan:
That's a really good point because in the answers to the webinars, you basically have 30 seconds to provide an answer because you have so many questions to get to. But here, we will parse it out in greater detail. We'll talk more about inflationary aspects, interest rates, and Fiat currency, everything that's on people's minds. One of the big ones is, how do we pay for this? And one of my answers is, who says we're going to pay for this? So it gives us a chance to talk about MMT and a whole lot of other things, as we go along, I'm looking forward to that a lot. And even more information on the second wave will be available if we see more developing there. We certainly hope not, but as you and I have discussed, and the whole team, data is the answer. So while the headlines are saying things that are not wrong, but they put in adjectives that certainly tell you what you're supposed to do with the data or how you're supposed to interpret the data, you and I will be looking at the data. And as we look at the data, that's an entirely different way to look at that the world around us.

Brian:
Absolutely. And the data has been very helpful to you and me and the forecasting team so far. Look at the GDP results and how close they've come to our forecast so far. And we're constantly asking ourselves, you, me, Jackie, and the rest of the forecasters, the senior forecasters, should we be changing our forecast? It's not like it's cast in granite. This is a very fluid situation. And we keep coming back with, the data is telling us this. So put the rhetoric aside, dampen down the emotion, and stick with the data. And when the data tells us we need to shift, we shift. And we have, when necessary. But I found it to be very helpful to be data centric. And that's a big part of what I'm hoping we can share, really, for both webinars.

Alan:
Indeed. And I'm going to ask you a question at the July one. I'm going to save it for July, but I'll give you some time to think about it. Because I was asked this question and it fascinated me. Besides the second wave, what are the second and third biggest risk factors in your mind that you did not talk about today? And-

Brian:
Those are great questions. I mean, we ask ourselves those, as you know, when we're forecasting, we have to write down upside risks and downside risks. So those are great questions. I think we'll ask both, upside and downside risks to the forecast. I think that's an important part of, you call it lines in the sand. I call it stakes in the ground, right? It tells you whether you're on the path to results, mirroring the forecast or not. So we'll talk about those. That's great. That'll be a nice addition to what we do on the outside.

Alan:
Yeah. I believe you're right. And I'm looking forward to that, too. Of course, we'll talk about the stock market. We can't help ourselves. So we'll talk about the stock market and maybe more detailed than we've been doing in our webinars. I'd like to, if there's time. And as far as I'm concerned, one of the fun things, and I like doing these with you, this is a gas because it reminds me of our old radio show and we'll be able to take questions from people. And boy, isn't that the fun part, where we get to see what's on people's minds and answer their questions to the best of our ability.

Brian:
That's where iron sharpeneth iron, I guess is some expression. I mean, we learn so much from the questions that come in and it really forces us to hone in on what's real, rather than just this ethereal economic world that we can sometimes drift into. So I think that you're absolutely right. That is fundamentally crucial and a big part of what we're going to do.

Alan:
Yeah, I agree. It should be a good time. We're going to share some information we don't normally share. We're going to dive deeper in some areas we don't normally dive deeper and answer some fascinating questions. It'll be good.

Brian:
It's going to be great. Always fun, brother.

Alan:
And along the way, you may even find a way to call me another name. So we'll see what happens.

Brian:
Yes, I'll try.

Alan:
All right. See you in June and July, we hope.

Brian:
June 23, July 22nd. Please be there. We'll be there.

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