Pandemic Economic Updates
On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the COVID-19 virus a pandemic. The COVID-19 black swan was followed by the Saudis’ decision to significantly discount oil prices, disrupting the marketplace, and providing the world with a second black swan.
Health concerns, a dramatic decline into correction territory for the S&P 500, and declining oil and copper prices have combined to create a high level of uncertainty about what to expect from an economic perspective for the rest of 2020. Through our frequent subscriber updates, blog posts, and TrendsTalk episodes, we are cutting through the media noise to bring you objective, numbers-driven insights.
Additional helpful resources:
Separating the Wheat From the Political Chaff - Tuesday, June 23 at 2 p.m. EDT
Surprise is part of politics, but we will look at the major positions provided by the leading candidates and determine if any of them have the potential to significantly impact our macroeconomic outlook for growth in 2021 and recession in 2022–2023. This will not be an exercise in political handicapping of the race or election results. It will be an analysis of the potential economic consequences of the candidates' positions, should they be enacted into law.
Recovery & Eventual Growth Versus Depression - Wednesday, July 22 at 2 p.m. EDT
Your future financial well-being hangs in the balance. There is a perspective that says one of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic is sustained economic Depression for years and years to come, and that will be the new norm. ITR’s perspective is that recovery & growth are probable. The strategic plans required by the former are radically different than those required by the latter.
I have been following ITR for six years now. By listening to and incorporating the practices of your leadership and excellent forecasting, my company is set to weather this COVID-19 storm while providing our employees with extra PTO and time-and-a-half pay for any hours worked. Thank you for continuing to provide measured and up-to-date forecasts for your audience. I’m very grateful for ITR’s measured analyses and objective outlooks. Your work is greatly appreciated, by large and small firms alike. Keep up the great work and give my best to the whole team.
Every year when I see Mark Mullen of Griggs Steel Company on the onsite visit, he sings our praises to the board who attends the retreat. He loves how ITR cuts through the noise and speculation and gives him the calm and rational outlook that we can rely on. He is someone that really hones in on the 3MMT outlook, but is also really amazed at how our year-end 12MMT forecast is so close to what happened. He recently told me last week that’s he’s gotten to the point where he doesn’t try to adjust the forecast on his end because he is now at a point that he trusts us, and it was a waste of his time. I always say Mark is so onboard and on top of what ITR does and says that he could work here. He really is a great example of why our forecasting and our forecast checking is so important to our clients and how they make big decisions off it.
Jeb Bell of Equipment Controls is a huge fan of ITR and has been since 2007. ITR is part of their internal lexicon on a weekly basis and we are always a part of any financial discussion internally or externally. He is always telling people about our forecasts, the people here, and how it is worth every penny he pays us, and then some! He told me that Brian’s webinar on Friday was attended by his team and they felt incredibly better after the webinar. They went into it “looking for an end”, and they left the webinar knowing it would end and they can continue with their planning and operations. It was a great help to them.
These updates are reassuring and calming during this time of media hysteria. Much appreciated.
Thank you also for providing the early info on the Coronavirus – “It will get worse before it gets better, but it will get better” – and for your solo pep rally for the US economy. It was calming and uplifting at the same time.