On the Road with ITR Economics

  • by itradmin - Thu, 04/06/2017 - 07:01

The ITR Leading Indicator rose through March. Close inspection of the trend will reveal that the rising trend is losing momentum. The rising trend is beginning to curve toward the horizontal. We are seeing the same phenomenon for the ISM’s PMI 1/12 rate-of-change. Keep an eye on the trends. They could right themselves and show some additional accelerated rise; however, we are getting near the time when it would be normal for the rising trends to lean over and start new declining trends. If that occurs, it means that we are on track for seeing the economy’s growth rate diminish in 2018. Diminished growth is a normal prelude to active decline. We will be closely measuring the slope of the declining trends whenever they occur. Mild descent is expected and would mean that the deceleration process in 2018 will be gradual. Stay tuned…We will let you know!

Brian Beaulieu