Guarded Optimism

  • by itradmin - Tue, 10/18/2016 - 12:01

August data for US Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft) rebounded from a dismal July. August came in 9.0% higher than July; a better-than-normal increase for the month. New Orders for the month are 0.9% lower than the year-ago figure, so we clearly are not out of the woods yet. Furthermore, we don’t have confirming rate-of-change input that a sustainable shift into cyclical recovery is at hand. We will have to see what September and October come in at, but the leading indicators suggest there is cause for guarded optimism. For right now, it is nice to be able to share some upbeat news about this important bellwether for the economy. We expect we will have more to share in this vein in future months.