Blog Posts

  • September 21, 2017
    Your Most Valuable Asset This week I attended an industry conference where a panel of CEOs discussed the factors they believed made their companies successful. These individuals, who had an average of more than thirty years of industry and management experience, consistently and unanimously...

  • September 20, 2017
    I was on a panel recently with two gentlemen worthy of respect. They both served in the White House as close advisors to presidents — one Democrat and one Republican. I was the economist. (Kudos to the ISSA for bringing Karl Rove, Jim Messina, and an economist onto a panel!) Lots of takeaways,...

  • September 15, 2017
    Have you noticed that there are a lot of people who believe we are not the country we once were because GDP is not growing at 4%? Others use a benchmark of 3% above the rate of inflation. The thought behind these opinions is that the American Dream is in decay and we, as a people, are worse off...

  • September 8, 2017
    Navigating the Crest Timing is everything. Making the right business decisions at the right time is often the critical factor that determines the outcome between success and failure. Whether it is the deployment of capital, hiring or firing of staff, pulling the trigger on an acquisition or...

  • September 4, 2017
    First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers go out to those impacted by Hurricane Harvey. The devastation was considerable. Turning to business, our focus now is to assess Harvey’s economic impact. We started that analysis over the weekend and it continues today. While the amount of rainfall...

  • August 30, 2017
    A missile sailed over Japan as of the date of this writing and the morning headlines shouted that the markets were down because they were rattled by North Korea’s audacious act. Well, the missile did fly over Japan, but the market ended just 0.15% lower on the day. This is a perfect illustration of...

  • August 23, 2017
    Washington lawmakers are on summer recess, and legislation discussions have slowed in recent weeks, with most of the debate centering on the Affordable Care Act and tax reform. However, negotiations have commenced on another economically relevant campaign promise of the Trump administration: the...

  • August 16, 2017
    I frequently am asked about our outlook for the US dollar. The dollar, which strengthened significantly versus most foreign currencies from mid-2014 through late 2015, has not given back much of that strength over the past 18 months. Although some modest weakening has taken place since May, we...

  • August 7, 2017
    New GDP is out and it shows that the economy picked up some upward business cycle momentum in 2Q17. We think additional strengthening is probable based on leading indicator and consumer-related trends. That is all certainly good news. 2018 continues to look like a year of slowing growth, but the...

  • August 1, 2017
    This week, a topic of discussion was the negative heading that the multi-family housing market has taken over the last year and our expectation that this will continue through year-end before rebounding in 2018. How did we get here? Well, the simplest explanation is that the multi family space...