Blog Posts

  • February 26, 2018
    There are a lot of opportunities to make money in defense spending, but first, let’s put defense spending into its proper context. It was a huge part of overall federal spending in 2017 but not the largest, as the table below shows. (ITR’s business cycle phases are A, B, C, and D. Phase B is when...

  • February 21, 2018
    ITR Economics has advocated for many years that companies should invest in their future growth at the bottom of the business cycle. Our leading indicator methodology is designed to help firms predict when future cyclical lows and highs in their markets, and their businesses, will occur...

  • February 15, 2018
    ITR projected a slowing rate of growth in GDP and US Industrial Production in the second half of this year. The recent decline in the stock market, as measured by the S...

  • February 8, 2018
    The S...

  • February 1, 2018
    A recent study by Bank of America has been getting a lot of attention for its optimistic findings on millennial savings habits. According to the study, nearly half of millennials (aged 23 to 37) have at least $15,000 in savings, while one in six have saved $100,000 — twice the rate seen in...

  • January 25, 2018
    There seems to be a broad assumption that the tax law changes are going to dump a lot of fresh, free cash into the economy. We are hopeful that it will move the economic needle, but we urge caution because more data is needed. For instance, the potential to repatriate overseas profits has...

  • January 24, 2018
    The US economy is buzzing. The stock market is up, most businesses conquered the world in 2017, and, if the first few weeks are any indication, this year will be better than the last. We are relaxed, giddy even, with the optimism over what 2018 will bring for our businesses and ourselves....

  • January 18, 2018
    A friend, who is also a client, recently asked me a couple of interesting questions in regard to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. First, he asked why some companies are exhibiting a sudden burst of generosity (bonuses and such). He noted a lack of a reasonable explanation of why they are...

  • January 10, 2018
    Exports are important to economic growth in the US. Exports of goods and services for the 12 months ending September 2017 were 11.8% of GDP (nominal dollars) — $2.295 trillion (US Census Bureau). Goods comprise 66.1% of the total. Most people seem to think we are a minor exporter compared to China...

  • January 3, 2018
    Perspective is an amazing thing. Look at the first chart below. It shows the S...