Blog Posts

  • May 16, 2018
    The US federal government spends more money than it collects in taxes, with one of the largest expenses in the budget represented by defense spending. In fact, we spend more money on defense than the next seven countries (China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, India, France, United Kingdom, and Japan...

  • May 10, 2018
    The US economy is expanding, but the good times can’t last forever. ITR Economics has been calling for a business cycle peak to occur later this year, and key leading economic indicators are now providing evidence in support of this forecast. The recent tax reform package has been billed as...

  • May 9, 2018
    After falling out of favor in foreign exchange markets for most of 2017 and the first few months of 2018, the US dollar (USD) is showing signs of life during recent weeks. This could be the start of a strengthening USD trend. Currencies can sometimes be tricky, particularly when seeing...

  • May 4, 2018
    The 100% expensing of qualified assets by businesses, courtesy of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, has received a lot of attention from politicians, the media, and businesses. It is a frequent subject of conversation as we discuss the economy with clients and audiences. Almost without...

  • April 27, 2018
    ITR Economics most often provides economic forecasts that extend out two to three years. Our leading indicator methodology provides a window into the future for business leaders. We are also helping people prepare for the coming Great Depression (see Prosperity in the Age of Decline by...

  • April 26, 2018
    The US economy could use an upward bounce in corporate profitability. “Follow the money” is very good advice at this stage of the business cycle and the trend through April 24 was not encouraging. The profits-trend in the US varies from positive for the utility and machinery manufacturer...

  • April 20, 2018
    Inflation has been subdued for several years now. An accelerating growth trend in the domestic economy and a weaker exchange rate are currently supporting moderate levels of inflation. Our baseline forecast for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) calls for inflation to mildly accelerate from...

  • April 19, 2018
    Unintended consequences are not always harmful Regular readers of our blogs and the ITR Trends Report™ have heard us talk about the law of unintended consequences over the last few weeks, often in the context of tariffs. Boeing and Bombardier provide a great example of what we mean by...

  • April 11, 2018
    As an Economic Speaker for ITR Economics, tariffs seem to be the number one issue that folks want to discuss. The issue was elevated recently with the Administration considering another round of tariffs on Chinese goods (this time totaling $100 billion) because it decided that the Chinese...

  • April 4, 2018
    Profitless prosperity? Not quite. However, US businesses closed 2017 not with a bang but with a whimper in the latest corporate profitability data. US Corporate Profits during the fourth quarter of 2017 (finalized data released late last week) came to $2.212 trillion. On the surface, that...