Blog Posts

  • July 5, 2018
    We use leading indicators at ITR Economics to discern future business cycle movements. Our leading indicator analysis is distinct from our economic forecasting, but does inform our forecasts and support our 94.7% forecast accuracy rate. Leading indicator analysis is based on actual...

  • June 29, 2018
    Single-Family Unit Housing Permits is a useful leading indicator of what will be happening in Single-Family Housing Starts, which is of course important to contractors, lumber yards, appliance sales, carpet sales, and a whole host of other products and services related to the housing...

  • June 28, 2018
    On Monday, June 25th, Harley-Davidson Inc. announced it would be moving some of its domestic production of European Union bound bikes overseas. Harley-Davidson cited recent retaliatory tariffs from the EU, which came in response to US tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from the EU, as a...

  • June 21, 2018
    We think there are four variables presently at work that are inhibiting stock market rise and one variable that typically means the market has gone as high as it can for the current cycle. The five mitigating variables are: Individual investors have gone heavily into this market; which tends...

  • June 20, 2018
    There have been several reports that Industrial Production in May came in 0.1% below April, suggesting that troubles are afoot. These reports came to that conclusion because they look at seasonally adjusted data. At ITR Economics, we prefer non-seasonally adjusted data. Utilizing rates-of-...

  • June 14, 2018
    Uncertainty and volatility are the prevailing challenges that business leaders confront today. The critical questions facing businesses are: “What will be the overall health and vibrancy of the US and global economies going forward?”; and “How can I be profitable and make critical strategic...

  • June 8, 2018
    The emergence of new technologies brings both risks and opportunities. Today, artificial intelligence is progressing at a pace that was inconceivable just a few years ago. The impact is perhaps most conspicuous in the manufacturing sector. While US Manufacturing Production has risen...

  • May 31, 2018
    We all hear the pronouncements about different optimism indices, and they are usually portrayed as harbingers of the longer-term future. I recently had a pleasant conversation with a US Congressman in which he was telling me that the very high level in the Small Business Optimism Index meant that...

  • May 25, 2018
    At ITR Economics, we divide the business cycle into four phases. Knowing where you are in the business cycle can enable your company to make optimal decisions for a given economic climate and best prepare for what’s coming next. The four phases are: •Phase A: Recovery – During...

  • May 24, 2018
    Disclaimer: I am a capitalist. I believe in the capitalist system. Not perfect but better than any alternative. “Secular stagnation” is meant to describe a market-based economy that experiences slow growth or no growth. Secular is used to imply a long-term condition as opposed to the...