From the President's Desk

From the President’s Desk: Who Loses the Most in a Trade War with China

  • by itradmin - Wed, 03/28/2018 - 14:06

Two important sets of numbers

President Trump announced $60bn in tariffs against a broad swath of Chinese made goods coming into the US. The stated reason for the tariffs is to punish China for the theft of intellectual property. He is certainly not wrong in terms of the theft of IT. China said that these tariffs are a declaration of a trade war and they will respond.

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From the President’s Desk: What to Know About Defense Spending

  • by itradmin - Mon, 02/26/2018 - 15:49
There are a lot of opportunities to make money in defense spending, but first, let’s put defense spending into its proper context. It was a huge part of overall federal spending in 2017 but not the largest, as the table below shows. (ITR’s business cycle phases are A, B, C, and D. Phase B is when the rate of growth in spending is accelerating; Phase C is when the rate of growth is slowing down.)

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From the President’s Desk: Tax Cuts and the Consumer

  • by itradmin - Thu, 01/18/2018 - 18:10
calculator

A friend, who is also a client, recently asked me a couple of interesting questions in regard to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. First, he asked why some companies are exhibiting a sudden burst of generosity (bonuses and such). He noted a lack of a reasonable explanation of why they are doing these things and wondered if it was purely PR or, perhaps, a political deal?

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From the President’s Desk: Amazon – Fact and Fiction

  • by itradmin - Fri, 12/29/2017 - 11:06

It is common to hear that Amazon is going to take over the retail world and that brick and mortar retail stores are about to become a thing of the past, along with distributors. That is fiction. That premise assumes that retail stores do not provide an experience that people enjoy and that retailers and distributors will not adapt to the challenges that Amazon presents.

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From the President's Desk

  • by itradmin - Fri, 11/24/2017 - 10:32

H-B1 visas, and immigration in general, can be a highly politicized topic. It can also be emotionally charged. We are going to keep this at the dispassionate economic level, and as Joe Friday used to say, stick with ‘just the facts’.

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From the President’s Desk

  • by itradmin - Mon, 10/23/2017 - 10:44

An oft-asked (two-part) question: What can we expect from the evolution in automobiles to electric vehicles? Will this be devastating to the oil and automotive industries and, thus, to our economy?

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From the President’s Desk

  • by itradmin - Wed, 08/30/2017 - 13:30

A missile sailed over Japan as of the date of this writing and the morning headlines shouted that the markets were down because they were rattled by North Korea’s audacious act. Well, the missile did fly over Japan, but the market ended just 0.15% lower on the day. This is a perfect illustration of economics having more power than most single acts. That is not to lessen the political importance of what happened, or to diminish concerns in Japan, not at all.

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