From the President's Desk

From the President's Desk: Is Debt About to Push the Economy into Recession?

  • by ITR Economics - Fri, 07/13/2018 - 14:36

Debt and More Debt!

Corporate and consumer debt is growing. This cannot, and will not, continue with impunity in the years ahead. We are now sowing the seeds for a future downturn in the US economy, but is it a problem for today as many fear?

Delinquency rates show no immediate problem with either consumers or business when it comes to servicing loans, which is good news.

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From the President's Desk: Small Business Optimism—Does it Matter?

  • by ITR Economics - Thu, 05/31/2018 - 14:23

We all hear the pronouncements about different optimism indices, and they are usually portrayed as harbingers of the longer-term future. I recently had a pleasant conversation with a US Congressman in which he was telling me that the very high level in the Small Business Optimism Index meant that the economy was going to continue to expand and that the new tax law was “working” as designed. He told me that perception equals reality. ITR Economics, however, takes an analytical approach to our consulting work.

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From the President’s Desk: Who Loses the Most in a Trade War with China

  • by itradmin - Wed, 03/28/2018 - 14:06

Two important sets of numbers

President Trump announced $60bn in tariffs against a broad swath of Chinese made goods coming into the US. The stated reason for the tariffs is to punish China for the theft of intellectual property. He is certainly not wrong in terms of the theft of IT. China said that these tariffs are a declaration of a trade war and they will respond.

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From the President’s Desk: What to Know About Defense Spending

  • by itradmin - Mon, 02/26/2018 - 15:49
There are a lot of opportunities to make money in defense spending, but first, let’s put defense spending into its proper context. It was a huge part of overall federal spending in 2017 but not the largest, as the table below shows. (ITR’s business cycle phases are A, B, C, and D. Phase B is when the rate of growth in spending is accelerating; Phase C is when the rate of growth is slowing down.)

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