From the President's Desk

From the President's Desk: Tapping the Brakes

  • by ITR Economics - Wed, 11/21/2018 - 14:41
Alan Beaulieu

Consumer activity in the US is slowing in its rate of rise, and in conjunction with the slowing rate of business-to-business spending, the US economy as measured by GDP will experience a noticeably softer rate of growth in 2019 compared to 2018.

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From the President's Desk: Strong Growth in the Wholesale Trade Sectors Can’t – and Won't – Last Forever

  • by ITR Economics - Wed, 10/17/2018 - 13:57
Alan Beaulieu

Total Wholesale Trade is running at an impressive 8.5% above this time last year (12/12 basis). The good news is apparent in both Durable Goods and Nondurable Goods, which have posted year-over-year gains of 9.3% and 7.8%, respectively. Furthermore, their respective 12MMTs are at record-high levels. Industry participants no doubt feel good and are enjoying a busy and profitable year.

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From the President's Desk: Is Debt About to Push the Economy into Recession?

  • by ITR Economics - Fri, 07/13/2018 - 14:36

Debt and More Debt!

Corporate and consumer debt is growing. This cannot, and will not, continue with impunity in the years ahead. We are now sowing the seeds for a future downturn in the US economy, but is it a problem for today as many fear?

Delinquency rates show no immediate problem with either consumers or business when it comes to servicing loans, which is good news.

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From the President's Desk: Small Business Optimism—Does it Matter?

  • by ITR Economics - Thu, 05/31/2018 - 14:23

We all hear the pronouncements about different optimism indices, and they are usually portrayed as harbingers of the longer-term future. I recently had a pleasant conversation with a US Congressman in which he was telling me that the very high level in the Small Business Optimism Index meant that the economy was going to continue to expand and that the new tax law was “working” as designed. He told me that perception equals reality. ITR Economics, however, takes an analytical approach to our consulting work.

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